One of many summer season’s largest races is about for Saturday underneath the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs, the place a high-quality discipline will compete within the Stephen Foster Stakes for a handbag of $1 million and a assured spot within the Breeders’ Cup Basic.
Over the previous 30 years, the 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster has been an important race in figuring out the highest contenders for the 1 ¼-mile, $7 million Longines Basic, which this yr might be held Nov. 1 at Del Mar. Saturday’s Stephen Foster winner will obtain an computerized berth to the Basic with entry charges waived plus a journey stipend.
A star-studded lineup is readily available for the 2025 Stephen Foster Stakes, which is designated a Grade 1 occasion, the best degree within the sport. Final yr’s Breeders’ Cup Basic winner (Sierra Leone) and Kentucky Derby Introduced By Woodford Reserve winner (Mystik Dan) are each entered, as is that this spring’s winner of the Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline, Hit Present. The Stephen Foster has a scheduled submit time of 6:03 p.m. ET and might be televised by FanDuel TV.
Get info on all the contenders plus some betting insights in ABR’s Cheat Sheet:
1. First Mission
Jockey: Luis Saez
Coach: Brad Cox
Proprietor: Godolphin
Profession document: 12 begins – 6 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
Profession earnings: $2,060,170
High Equibase Velocity Determine: 115
Pedigree: Road Sense – Elude, by Medaglia d’Oro
Age: 5
Shade: Darkish bay or brown
Working type: Press the tempo/stalker
Evaluation: First Mission has assembled an excellent profession so far having completed within the prime three in 9 of 12 races. He’s nonetheless in the hunt for his first Grade 1 victory, nevertheless, and he’s dissatisfied in his three prior begins at that degree. A type of was final yr’s Stephen Foster, by which he set the early tempo however then drained to complete fourth because the 0.93-1 post-time favourite. This yr, the 5-year-old completed an in depth third in a 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 stakes race at Oaklawn Park after which received the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap by two lengths, incomes a 115 Equibase Velocity Determine that tied his profession greatest. This horse has had prior success at Churchill Downs and seems to be in the very best type of his profession. What’s extra, he’s proven the flexibility to run nicely whereas being forwardly positioned, and that type ought to profit him in a discipline that lacks a real pace horse. Search for jockey Luis Saez, who received final yr’s Stephen Foster, to be aggressive with First Mission and presumably put him on the early lead in an try and “wire the sector,” i.e., lead from begin to end.
2. Mindframe
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Coach: Todd Pletcher
House owners: Repole Secure and St. Elias Secure
Profession document: 6 begins – 4 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Profession earnings: $1,292,160
Pedigree: Structure – Stroll of Stars, by Road Sense
Age: 4
Shade: Darkish bay or brown
Working type: Stalker
Evaluation: This gifted colt is an upset candidate within the Stephen Foster who might go off at a pretty post-time worth because of the presence of bigger-name horses, corresponding to Sierra Leone and Mystik Dan. He’s solely made six begins in his profession, by no means ending worse than second, and nonetheless has the potential to enhance. Mindframe is 2-for-2 up to now in 2025, simply successful a one-mile Grade 2 stakes at Gulfstream Park after which charging by the stretch to win the seven-furlong, Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes Introduced by Ford Might 3 the place he prevailed by a neck over three different horses that every one reached the end line collectively. Final yr, Mindframe almost received the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Introduced by NYRA Bets held at 1 ¼ miles, and after two races round one flip this yr he ought to be able to stretch out in distance to the Stephen Foster’s 1 1/8 miles. Main nationwide jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard this colt for all six of his profession begins, and Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher picked up his first win on this race final yr. Ortiz ought to have his mount in a ahead place and the pair would possibly even take command out of the gate, as Mindframe received a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs final yr by main from begin to end. All in all, Mindframe seems set for a career-best effort Saturday.
3.Skippylongstocking
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Coach: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Proprietor: Daniel Alonso
Profession document: 32 begins – 11 wins – 3 seconds – 7 thirds
Profession earnings: $3,661,610
Pedigree: Exaggerator – Twinkling, by Struggle Chant
Age: 6
Shade: Bay
Working type: Press the tempo/stalker
Evaluation: In an period when many prime racehorses retire at age 3 or 4 and head off to the breeding shed, this 6-year-old is a throwback. Since debuting at age 2 in 2021, Skippylongstocking has made 32 begins and by no means missed vital time away from the monitor. He may be counted on to provide an excellent, trustworthy effort almost each time, though his greatest races have been on the Grade 2 and Grade 3 degree. The Exaggerator horse ships in to Churchill Downs off of considered one of his prime efforts, a three-quarter size win within the 1 ¼ mile, Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes Might 26 at Santa Anita Park, which was his second win in 4 begins up to now this yr. He completed a strong third in final yr’s Stephen Foster and might be reunited along with his jockey in that race, Jose Ortiz, on Saturday. General, Skippylongstocking’s greatest Equibase Velocity Figures are just a few factors decrease than these earned by a number of of his Stephen Foster opponents, however he’s worthy of utilizing in exacta and trifecta bets at what ought to be interesting post-time odds.
4. Sierra Leone
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Coach: Chad Brown
House owners: Peter Brant, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg Ltd., and Brook Smith
Profession document: 10 begins – 4 wins – 3 seconds – 3 thirds
Profession earnings: $6,058,000
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon
Age: 4
Shade: Darkish bay or brown
Working type: Nearer
Evaluation: Sierra Leone is considerably of a query mark in Saturday’s Stephen Foster as he will get prepared for his second begin at age 4. He might go off because the post-time favourite regardless of his disappointing return to the monitor March 22 within the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 New Orleans Basic Stakes Introduced by Relyne GI by Hagyard at Truthful Grounds, the place he made a late transfer however nonetheless completed third by 4 ½ lengths because the heavy 3-10 favourite. That was Sierra Leone’s first begin since simply his career-best race, a 1 ½-length win in final fall’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Basic held at 1 ¼ miles, and whereas he was certainly spectacular at Del Mar and earned a 116 Equibase Velocity Determine, he additionally benefited from a really quick early tempo which helped to arrange his rally. This yr’s Stephen Foster discipline lacks any one-dimensional pace horses, which signifies that the early tempo might be reasonable and thus make it harder for Sierra Leone to muster his customary closing kick. He’s eligible to enhance in his second begin this yr, however Sierra Leone might want to try this to defeat this achieved discipline – and as talked about above, he might be an underlay come submit time.
New To Horse Racing? Let Us Clarify…
Underlay vs. overlay in odds when betting: A horse with underlaid odds signifies that his/her odds to win within the parimutuel betting pool (which collects all bets made and distributes the cash to winners) are decrease than what you, the bettor, consider is his/her precise likelihood to win the race in contrast with the opposite horses within the discipline. So, for instance, if Sierra Leone carries odds of 1-1 (known as “even cash”) within the Foster, that might equate to him having a 50% likelihood of successful the race. In the event you, the bettor, consider his likelihood of successful is greater than 50%, he’s subsequently an underlay at 1-1 odds (his odds are laid underneath his perceived likelihood to win) and unworthy of putting a wager on.
For a horse with overlaid odds, the reverse is true: his/her odds within the parimutuel pool are larger than what you, the bettor, estimate his win probabilities at, making him/her the one to wager on. Utilizing this instance once more, if Sierra Leone has parimutuel odds of 4-1 within the Foster, that equates to a 20% likelihood of successful. In the event you assume he has a 50% likelihood of successful (and even 30% or 40%) and the opposite bettors within the pool offer you odds of 20% – take them!
5. Mystik Dan
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Coach: Ken McPeek
House owners: 4 G Racing, Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby III, and Valley View Farm
Profession document: 13 begins – 4 wins – 3 seconds – 1 third
Profession earnings: $4,417,750
Pedigree: Goldencents – Ma’am, by Colonel John
Age: 4
Shade: Bay
Working type: Stalker
Evaluation: After a pair of no-show races final winter, Mystik Dan has discovered the extent of capacity he confirmed just a little greater than a yr in the past when he posted an upset win within the 1 ¼-mile, Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve at Churchill Downs. First, he got here again from a break of greater than three months in early Might and almost received a 1 1/16-mile stakes race at Oaklawn Park, shedding by a nostril, and he then returned to his dwelling monitor in Louisville and received the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 3 Blame Stakes by 1 ¼ lengths on Might 31. Mystik Dan’s common jockey, Brian Hernandez Jr., used a technique just like the one he employed within the Kentucky Derby to information Mystik Dan within the Blame Stakes – save floor alongside the within, anticipate house to open up getting into the stretch, after which make a decisive bid and take command. Search for horse and rider to strive the identical strategy once more Saturday on a monitor the place Mystik Dan is 3-for-4 lifetime. Though he received the Kentucky Derby at a mile and 1 / 4, this colt seems to be best-suited to races at 1 1/8 miles or shorter, which makes him a number one win candidate within the Stephen Foster and a must-use in exacta and trifecta bets.
6. Hit Present
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Coach: Brad Cox
Proprietor: Wathnan Racing
Profession document: 18 begins – 9 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Profession earnings: $8,406,928
Pedigree: Sweet Journey – Actress, by Tapit
Age: 5
Shade: Grey or roan
Working type: Nearer
Evaluation: This late-running veteran picked the appropriate race to place forth a career-best effort again in March, rallying from off of the tempo to win the $12 million Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline by a half-length. That 1 ¼-mile race was held midway internationally at Meydan Racecourse within the United Arab Emirates, and it featured a world discipline headlined by Japanese star Perpetually Younger (who completed third) and some different strong however unspectacular U.S. horses, together with runner-up Mixto. Hit Present comes again to the U.S. in a race that’s an eighth of a mile shorter and with a handbag $11 million {dollars} decrease, however he’ll face arguably simply as powerful of a discipline. General, he’s had an excellent profession so far and particularly since final August, a stretch when he’s received 5 of seven begins together with the 2024 Lukas Basic Stakes held at 1 1/8 miles on Churchill’s monitor. U.S. horses getting back from journeys to Dubai usually underperform of their first race again, in order that’s a priority, and Hit Present’s greatest Equibase Velocity Figures are a notch under these of Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan, and stablemate First Mission. Nonetheless, he’s a risk to win the Stephen Foster underneath jockey Florent Geroux, who was aboard in each final yr’s Lukas Basic and the Dubai World Cup. Like Sierra Leone, he’ll want a quick tempo to assist arrange his come-from-behind cost, and he might not get it Saturday.
7. Ashcroft
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Coach: Bas Nicholl
Proprietor: Debra Barkley
Profession document: 12 begins – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Profession earnings: $109,923
Pedigree: Munnings – Sky Willow, by Empire Maker
Age: 5
Shade: Chestnut
Working type: Stalker/nearer
Evaluation: Ashcroft is the outsider on this yr’s Stephen Foster discipline having completed fifth or worse in all three of his earlier stakes appearances. Nonetheless, he figures to obtain some further consideration because of the truth that he might be making his first begin for coach Bas Nicholl after his prior coach, Corridor of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, introduced his retirement on June 22 because of well being issues. Lukas, 89, took over coaching duties for Ashcroft for his most up-to-date begin on Might 3, when he completed fifth of 12 runners within the one-mile Knicks Go In a single day Stakes Introduced by L&N Federal Credit score Union on a sloppy monitor at Churchill. The Munnings horse was a 32.82-1 longshot on that day however in all probability received’t go off in that worth vary Saturday because of the Foster’s smaller discipline and presumably some assist on the betting home windows from Lukas’ legion of followers. Now, Lukas’ longtime assistant Nicholl takes over coaching obligations. Since Ashcroft’s win chances are high miniscule, search for jockey Julien Leparoux, who rode the horse to a fifth-place end two begins again within the seven-furlong Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland, to place him close to the again of the sector with the purpose of selecting off some drained runners within the stretch and hopefully filling out the superfecta.
New To Horse Racing? Let Us Clarify…
A superfecta or trifecta filler: We’re suggesting that you simply would possibly need to add the horse to your wager for those who’re taking part in a superfecta (selecting the primary 4 finishers) or a trifecta (first three finishers), and utilizing this horse within the third and fourth slot however to not win or end second.
